Development of a Decision Support Tool for Anticoagulation in Critically Ill Patients Admitted for SARS-CoV-2 Infection: The CALT Protocol.

Severe COVID-19 infections are at high risk of causing thromboembolic events (TEEs). However, the usual exams may be unavailable or unreliable in predicting the risk of TEEs at admission or during hospitalization. We performed a retrospective analysis of two centers (n = 124 patients) including severe COVID-19 patients to determine the specific risk factors of TEEs in SARS-CoV-2 infection at admission and during stays at the intensive care unit (ICU). We used stepwise regression to create two composite scores in order to predict TEEs in the first 48 h (H0-H48) and during the first 15 days (D1-D15) in ICU. We then evaluated the performance of our scores in our cohort. During the period H0-H48, patients with a TEE diagnosis had higher D-Dimers and ferritin values at day 1 (D1) and day 3 (D3) and a greater drop in fibrinogen between D1 and D3 compared with patients without TEEs. Over the period D1-D15, patients with a diagnosis of a TEE showed a more marked drop in fibrinogen and had higher D-Dimers and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) values at D1 and D3. Based on ROC analysis, the COVID-related acute lung and deep vein thrombosis (CALT) 1 score, calculated at D1, had a diagnostic performance for TEEs at H0-H48, estimated using an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (CI95%: 0.76-0.93, p < 10-3). The CALT 2 score, calculated at D3, predicted the occurrence of TEEs over the period D1-D15 with an estimated AUC of 0.85 (CI95%: 0.77-0.93, p < 10-3). These two scores were used as the basis for the development of the CALT protocol, a tool to assist in the decision to use anticoagulation during severe SARS-CoV-2 infections. The CALT scores showed good performances in predicting the risk of TEEs in severe COVID-19 patients at admission and during ICU stays. They could, therefore, be used as a decision support protocol on whether or not to initiate therapeutic anticoagulation.

Derivation and Validation of a Predictive Score for Respiratory Failure Worsening Leading to Secondary Intubation in COVID-19: The CERES Score.

Predictive scores assessing the risk of respiratory failure in COVID-19 mostly focused on the prediction of early intubation. A combined assessment of clinical parameters and biomarkers of endotheliopathy could allow to predict late worsening of acute respiratory failure (ARF), subsequently warranting intubation in COVID-19. Retrospective single-center derivation (n = 92 subjects) and validation cohorts (n = 59 subjects), including severe COVID-19 patients with non-invasive respiratory support, were assessed for at least 48 h following intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We used stepwise regression to construct the COVID endothelial and respiratory failure (CERES) score in a derivation cohort, and secondly assessed its accuracy for the prediction of late ARF worsening, requiring intubation within 15 days following ICU admission in an independent validation cohort. Platelet count, fraction of inspired oxygen, and endocan measured on ICU admission were identified as the top three predictive variables for late ARF worsening and subsequently included in the CERES score. The area under the ROC curve of the CERES score to predict late ARF worsening was calculated in the derivation and validation cohorts at 0.834 and 0.780, respectively. The CERES score is a simple tool with good performances to predict respiratory failure worsening, leading to secondary intubation, in COVID-19 patients.